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第5部分（第2页）

Harry　sighed　irritably；　pulled　out　a　sheet　of　paper。　〃Its　a　probability　equation。〃　He　wrote：

p　=　fpnhflfifc

＇＇29＇＇　〃What　it　means；〃　Harry　Adams　said；　〃is　that　the　probability；　p；　that　intelligent　life　will　evolve　in　any　star　system　is　a　function　of　the　probability　that　the　star　will　have　planets；　the　number　of　habitable　planets；　the　probability　that　simple　life　will　evolve　on　a　habitable　planet；　the　probability　that　intelligent　life　will　evolve　from　simple　life；　and　the　probability　that　intelligent　life　will　attempt　interstellar　munication　within　five　billion　years。　Thats　all　the　equation　says。〃

〃Uh…huh；〃　Norman　said。

〃But　the　point　is　that　we　have　no　facts；〃　Harry　said。　〃We　must　guess　at　every　single　one　of　these　probabilities。　And　its　quite　easy　to　guess　one　way；　as　Ted　does；　and　conclude　there　are　probably　thousands　of　intelligent　civilizations。　Its　equally　easy　to　guess；　as　I　do；　that　there　is　probably　only　one　civilization。　Ours。〃　He　pushed　the　paper　away。　〃And　in　that　case；　whatever　is　down　there　is　not　from　an　alien　civilization。　So　were　all　wasting　our　time　here。〃

〃Then　what　is　down　there？〃　Norman　said　again。

〃It　is　an　absurd　expression　of　romantic　hope；〃　Adams　said；　pushing　his　glasses　up　on　his　nose。　There　was　a　vehemence　about　him　that　troubled　Norman。　Six　years　earlier；　Harry　Adams　had　still　been　a　street　kid　whose　obscure　talent　had　carried　him　in　a　single　step　from　a　broken　home　in　the　slums　of　Philadelphia　to　the　manicured　green　lawns　of　Princeton。　In　those　days　Adams　had　been　playful；　amused　at　his　turn　of　fortune。　Why　was　he　so　harsh　now？

Adams　was　an　extraordinarily　gifted　theoretician；　his　reputation　secured　in　probability…density　functions　of　quantum　mechanics　which　were　beyond　Normans　prehension；　although　Adams　had　worked　them　out　when　he　was　seventeen。　But　Norman　could　certainly　understand　the　man　himself；　and　Harry　Adams　seemed　tense　and　critical　now；　ill　at　ease　in　this　group。

Or　perhaps　it　had　to　do　with　his　presence　as　part　of　a　group。　Norman　had　worried　about　how　he　would　fit　in；　because　Harry　had　been　a　child　prodigy。

There　were　really　only　two　kinds　of　child　prodigies…mathematical　and　musical。　Some　psychologists　argued　there　was　only　one　kind；　since　music　was　so　closely　related　to　＇＇30＇＇　mathematics。　While　there　were　precocious　children　with　other　talents；　such　as　writing；　painting；　and　athletics；　the　only　areas　in　which　a　child　might　truly　perform　at　the　level　of　an　adult　were　in　mathematics　or　music。　Psychologically；　such　children　were　plex：　often　loners；　isolated　from　their　peers　and　even　from　their　families　by　their　gifts；　for　which　they　were　both　admired　and　resented。　Socialization　skills　were　often　retarded；　making　group　interactions　unfortable。　As　a　slum　kid；　Harrys　problems　would　have　been；　if　anything；　magnified。　He　had　once　told　Norman　that　when　he　first　learned　about　Fourier　transforms；　the　other　kids　were　learning　to　slam…dunk。　So　maybe　Harry　was　feeling　unfortable　in　the　group　now。

But　there　seemed　to　be　something　else。　。。。　Harry　appeared　almost　angry。

〃You　wait；〃　Adams　said。　〃A　week　from　now；　this　is　going　to　be　recognized　as　one　big　fat　false　alarm。　Nothing　more。〃

You　hope；　Norman　thought。　And　again　wondered　why。

〃Well；　I　think　its　exciting；〃　Beth　Halpern　said；　smiling　brightly。　〃Even　a　slim　chance　of　finding　new　life　is　exciting；　as　far　as　I　am　concerned。〃

〃Thats　right；〃　Ted　said。　〃After　all；　Harry；　there　are　more　things　in　heaven　and　earth　than　are　dreamed　of　in　your　philosophy。〃

Norman　looked　over　at　the　final　member　of　the　team；　Arthur　Levine；　the　marine　biologist。　Levine　was　the　only　person　he　didnt　know。　A　pudgy　man；　Levine　looked　pale　and　uneasy；　wrapped　in　his　own　thoughts。　He　was　about　to　ask　Levine　what　he　thought　when　Captain　Barnes　strode　in；　a　stack　of　files　under　his　arm。

〃Wele　to　the　middle　of　nowhere；〃　Barnes　said；　〃and　you　cant　even　go　to　the　bathroom。〃　They　all　laughed　nervously。　〃Sorry　to　keep　you　waiting；〃　he　said。　〃But　we　dont　have　a　lot　of　time；　so　lets　get　right　down　to　it。　If　youll　kill　the　lights；　we　can　begin。〃

The　first　slide　showed　a　large　ship　with　an　elaborate　superstructure　on　the　stern。

＇＇31＇＇　〃The　Rose　Sealady；〃　Barnes　said。　〃A　cable…laying　vessel　chartered　by　Transpac　munications　to　lay　a　submarine　telephone　line　from　Honolulu　to　Sydney；　Australia。　The　Rose　left　Hawaii　on　May　29　of　this　year；　and　by　June　16　it　had　gotten　as　far　as　Western　Samoa　in　the　mid…Pacific。　It　was　laying　a　new　fiber…optics　cable；　which　has　a　carrying　capacity　of　twenty　thousand　simultaneous　telephonic　transmissions。　The　cable　is　covered　with　a　dense　metal…and…plastics　web　matrix；　unusually　tough　and　resistant　to　breaks。　The　ship　had　already　laid　more　than　forty…six　hundred　nautical　miles　of　cable　across　the　Pacific　with　no　mishaps　of　any　sort。　Next。〃

A　map　of　the　Pacific；　with　a　large　red　spot。

〃At　ten　p。m。　on　the　night　of　June　17；　the　vessel　was　located　here；　midway　between　Pago　Pago　in　American　Samoa　and　Viti　Levu　in　Fiji；　when　the　ship　experienced　a　wrenching　shudder。　Alarms　sounded；　and　the　crew　realized　the　cable　had　snagged　and　torn。　They　immediately　consulted　their　charts；　looking　for　an　underwater　obstruction；　but　could　see　none。　They　hauled　up　the　loose　cable；　which　took　several　hours；　since　at　the　time　of　the　accident　they　had　more　than　a　mile　of　cable　paid　out　behind　the　ship。　When　they　examined　the　cut　end；　they　saw　that　it　had　been　cleanly　sheared…as　one　crewman　said；　like　it　was　cut　with　a　huge　pair　of　scissors。　Next。〃

A　section　of　Fiberglas　cable　held　toward　the　camera　in　the　rough　hand　of　a　sailor。

〃The　nature　of　the　break；　as　you　can　see；　suggests　an　artificial　obstruction　of　some　sort。　The　Rose　steamed　north　back　over　the　scene　of　the　break。　Next。〃

A　series　of　ragged　black…and…white　lines；　with　a　region　of　small　spikes。

〃This　is　the　original　sonar　scan　from　the　ship。　If　you　cant　read　sonar　scans　thisll　be　ha

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