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Onscreen title: Harvard University; USA
字幕标题:美国,哈佛大学
NARRATOR: At 29; economist Jeff Sachs had just bee one of Harvards youngest full professors ever。
旁白:29岁的年轻经济学家杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeff Sachs)刚刚成为哈佛大学的一名最年轻的全职终生教授。
JEFFREY SACHS: In 1985; some former students sent me a note asking whether I would be ready to e to a meeting with a group of visiting Bolivians。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):1985年,几个我以前的学生问我准不准备见一帮来自###的访问学者。
NARRATOR: The Bolivians had e to Harvard to take part in a seminar on the hyperinflation that was ravaging their country。
旁白:###人是到哈佛来参加一个有关他们国家恶性通货膨胀的研讨会的。
JEFFREY SACHS: I was absolutely fascinated; made a few observations。 Somebody in the back of the room piped up and said; ";Well; if you think you know what to do; you e to La Paz。";
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):我被这个问题完全吸引了,做了一些观察并发了言。坐在房间后排的一个人大声喊道:“好吧,要是你知道怎么办,你就到拉巴斯来吧。”
When I got to La Paz in July 1985; the inflation rate was about 60;000 percent。 It was an extraordinary and terrifying thing to see; actually。 It was a society at the edge of the precipice。
当我1985年7月来到拉巴斯时,通货膨胀率大概为60,000%,这真是太不正常太可怕了,整个社会处在悬崖边缘,行将崩溃。
NARRATOR: Bolivias politicians were paralyzed。 Only one man seemed to know what to do。
旁白:###的政治家们麻木了,只有一个人似乎知道该怎么办。
JEFFREY SACHS: I met a man at a cocktail party one of the evenings at work。 I didnt know him at all。 I introduced myself。 He said; ";What are you doing?"; I said; ";Oh; Im writing an economic plan for the next government。";
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):一天晚上,我在一次工作之后的鸡尾酒会上遇到一个人,我根本就不认识这个人。我向他作了自我介绍,他问我:“你在干嘛?”我回答说:“哦,我正在为下一任政府制定经济计划。”
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: And I said; ";Im very; very pleased that youre studying this; because were going to beat these guys; and you can e and work for us。"; So they all laughed。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):我当时说:“非常高兴看到你在研究这些事情,因为我们将战胜这些家伙,你可以来和我们一起干。”他们都笑了。
JEFFREY SACHS: He said: ";Oh; thats very interesting。 What do you have in mind?"; And I described a few elements; basically how to stop hyperinflation。 And he said: ";No; no; you have to go much beyond that。 You dont understand。 We need so much more。 Youre just going on the surface。 This country needs a plete overhaul。 Weve got to get out of the mess that were in。"; I wasnt sure whether he was provoking me; whether he was kidding; whether he was sober; whether he knew what he was doing。 It turned out that this was Goni; Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada …… a genius。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):他说:“哦,这非常有意思,那你有什么想法?”于是我谈了一下我的看法,主要是有关如何制止恶性通货膨胀的。他说:“不,不,你必须还要考虑其他的事情,你不明白,我们不仅仅需要制止通货膨胀,其它的很多问题也急需解决,你还只是涉及到问题的皮毛。这个国家需要一次彻底的修整,我们要度过我们正在经历的各种难关。”我当时不明白他是否是有意戏弄我,是否是在跟我开玩笑,是否是认真的,是否知道他在干什么,后来才知道,他就是孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔——一个天才。
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Chapter 11: Shock Therapy Applied '4:48'
第十一章: 休克疗法的应用
NARRATOR: Gonis party did win the election; and he became minister of planning。 He told the president that Bolivia was running out of time。
旁白:孔塞洛的政党的确在选举中获得了胜利,他出任计划部部长,他告诉总统,###的时间是很有限的。
JUAN CARIAGA: We told him; ";You have 90 days before Bolivias hyperinflation bees the highest inflation in world history。"; So he told us; ";Okay; you have 20 days; you have to start working now。";
胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):我们告诉他,“再过90天,###的通货膨胀率就要变成历史上最高的恶性通货膨胀率了,”他告诉我们,“好吧,我给你们20天的时间,你们必须从现在起就开始工作。”
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: There was a big discussion whether you could stop a hyperinflation or an inflation period by taking gradualist steps。 In this Jeff Sachs was influential。 He said: ";All this gradualist stuff just doesnt work。 When it really gets out of control youve got to stop it; like a medicine。 Youve got to take some radical steps; otherwise your patient is going to die。";
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):对于能否采用一个渐进的步骤来终止恶性通货膨胀或一般的通货膨胀的问题,我们进行了大规模的讨论。在这方面,杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)是很有影响力的,他说:“所有这些渐进的措施都是无用的,当事情真的无法控制时,你必须制止它,像打针吃药一样,你必须采用一些激进的措施,否则你的病人便会死去。”
NARRATOR: To avoid leaks; they worked at home。 Every few days; Goni reported to the president。
旁白:为防止出现纰漏,他们都在家中工作。每隔几天,孔塞洛就要向总统汇报一次。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: We said: ";Look; boys; youve got one chance。 And remember; as Machiavelli said; Its all the bad news at once; the good news little by little。"; So he said; ";Get it all done。"; Shock therapy is get it over; get it done; stop hyperinflation; and then start rebuilding your economy so you achieve growth。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo Sanchez De Lozada):我们讲:“好吧,孩子们,你们只有一次机会,记住,正像马基雅弗利(Machiavelli)所说的那样‘坏消息总是一下子都来了,而好消息则只会一点一点地来’。”于是他说,“开始行动吧。”休克疗法就是终止这场恶性通货膨胀,重建你们的经济,使你们重新获得增长。
NARRATOR: In August 1985; Goni went public with a program called ";shock therapy。";
旁白:1985年8月,孔塞洛宣布实行一个被称为“休克疗法”的项目。
JUAN CARIAGA: It caught everybody by surprise。 It had great credibility。 It was a shock。
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